Belarus Will Press for Rapid Military Modernisation and Missile Program in Response to Expanding U.S. Presence in Poland

In response to U.S. plans to construct a large military base in Poland, neighbouring Belarus has reportedly perceived the development as a major threat to its security. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko states that increased NATO activity on its the Eastern flank would likely necessitate a military modernisation program - stressing that such a program would necessitate the inclusion of advanced missile capabilities. The President warned in a meeting with American experts: "If NATO continues to intimidate us, in the ways such as deployment of the Fort Trump base in Poland, or some other moves, we will need more effective weapons, first of all missiles.” The country currently fields advanced OTR-21 Tochka solid fuelled ballistic missiles, though the president’s statement indicates potential acquisition of the cutting edge Russian Iskander or longer ranged munitions - in particular following the collapse of the INF treaty regulating the deployments of ballistic missiles to Europe. The Iskander is perceived as a particularly lethal treat due to its ability to evade the latest NATO air defences. Acquisition of new cruise missiles such as the P-800 Oniks, or air launched systems such as the Kh-38, which can pose a major threat to NATO assets in Europe, also remain considerable possibilities.

Belarus is currently a leading client for Russian arms in Europe, and has participated in large scale military manoeuvres with its larger ally. Alongside Serbia, it remains Moscow's only major European military partner - fielding state of the art Russian military hardware including T-72 battle tanks, S-400 missile systems and, very soon, Su-30 air superiority fighters. President Lukashenko further elaborated on the country’s security situation, saying that he saw no need for a Russian military base - with Moscow having long sought an airbase in the country. He stated: "The issue of Russian base on the Belarusian territory is discussed very often. This issue is far-fetched …  We are in a military and political alliance with Russia, there would be no difference whether or not a (Russian) military base is set up here. We are not hosting this base only because we want to show that we are sovereign and independent, we are not hosting it because we do not need it – we will fulfill our duties ourselves, in accordance with our ideas and military and defense plan with Russia.” He further noted that Belarusian troops "are able to efficiently oppose any aggression, any conflict on the Belarusian territory if necessary."

The potential for a deployment of Russian combat aircraft to Belarus on a large airbase provides Minsk with some leverage over NATO powers, hence why the President made a subtle link between the issue of a Russian base and a U.S. deployment to Belarusian borders. How Belarus will respond remains to be seen, but closer military cooperation with Russia and acquisition of new asymmetric assets including ballistic and cruise missiles remain likely.